Knicks Predictions: Marbury to Outlast Brown

Got two predictions and New York Knicks fans are not going to like either one. Sorry, but here goes:

# 1. As anticipated, Larry Brown plus Stephon Marbury is not a productive pairing. In fact, they are bringing out the worst in each other. Prediction: Stephon Marbury is going to outlast Larry Brown with the Knicks.

# 2. Forget the debate over how many years Larry Brown will coach the Knicks. His contract calls for five years. Prediction: Larry Brown will not finish season number one on the sidelines of the New York Knicks.

Most Knicks fans were understandably elated when Isiah Thomas – armed with $50 million of James Dolan's cash - convinced Larry Brown to weasel his way out of Detroit to take on the daunting task of leading the staggering franchise back to respectability. Some fans expected the arrival of Brown to immediately make the Knicks a playoff team. In fact, the over/under in Las Vegas before the start of the season was 40 wins.

Yet now – one-third of the way into the season – the Knicks find themselves at 7-20 with only one team in the entire NBA with a worse record (Toronto at 7-22). The Knicks were bad last season and it still took them until April 1 to fall 13 games under .500. No one could have foreseen it going this bad, this quickly. Yes, the Knicks roster is still flawed. Yes, they're young. Yes, they've got new faces that are still trying to "jell". Yes, they've had injuries. Yes, Larry Brown teams often start off slow. OK, now that we've got all the tired old excuses out of the way, let's be honest: If Larry Brown wasn't Larry Brown, he would already be on the hot seat. Yes, you read that right. If Brown is to be judged purely on the job he has done as the Knicks coach – and not on his Hall of Fame resume – then a fairly compelling case can be made that he is doing a terrible job and the team would be better off with someone else at the helm.

Consider last night's 105-95 loss to Orlando in which the Marbury-Brown relationship – already rocky at best – may have bottomed out. Marbury played 39 minutes and went 0-for-7 from the floor with two assists and no steals. To say he was a non-factor is being charitable. In truth, he appeared to be pouting. So Marbury - in a characteristic display of (im)maturity and (non)leadership – elected to sleepwalk his way through the contest. Brown, in what has already become a predictable and tiresome post-game ritual, blamed individual members of his team – in this case Marbury – for the loss:

"I think he just didn't want to shoot the ball. I thought he'd have 15-20 assists. Just one of those nights he maybe he didn't feel like he was on. He's 0-for-7 shooting with three assists in 41 minutes. He got the ball all the time. I ran as much stuff for him as I have all season. He maybe didn't feel like he had it. He got three assists and no steals. By accident you can get a steal. That makes me think we weren't aggressive defensively."

Brown usually follows these backstabbing sessions with an insincere "Guess I gotta do a better job of coaching". Last night he didn't even bother with his self-deprecating act. But you know what? Larry Brown has gotta start doing a better job of coaching.

Great coaches adjust their coaching philosophy and game-planning to accentuate the strengths and conceal the weaknesses of their personnel. Great coaches do everything in their power to put players in a position to succeed. Larry Brown has not done that this season. On the contrary, Brown repeatedly takes not-so-subtle jabs at the flawed roster that Isiah Thomas has assembled. Even worse, Brown goes out of his way to call attention to the flaws of individual players. Pat Riley used to preach "having each other's backs". Brown's players have to watch their backs or their coach is likely to stab them in it.

Another point on Brown's performance this season: While chemistry is often overrated in basketball, Larry Brown has made a mockery of the concept by using 18 different starting lineups in 27 games. Last night's starting unit – another new one - combined to go 6-for-34 from the floor for a total of 20 points. It's hard to imagine any starting line-up in NBA history has ever been less productive.

So back to the predictions – which, it turns out, are directly related to each other. Marbury will outlast Larry Brown in New York because he is virtually untradeable. While the Knicks make it four teams that Marbury has failed to improve (joining Minnesota, New Jersey and Phoenix), there might still be a team willing to give the 28-year-old another chance if not for one huge obstacle: HIS CONTRACT. Marbury is in only the third season of a six-year, $105 million contract. Yikes. No team – especially when factoring in the dollar-for-dollar luxury tax implications - is going to touch that.

So Marbury is going nowhere any time soon. But why won't Larry Brown see the end of the season on the Knicks sidelines? Simply because he won't want to. The Knicks are not fun to watch and it's hard to imagine they're any fun to coach. Brown is 65. He's rich and no longer needs the hassle. Given his track record, there was no shot he was going to coach the Knicks for all five seasons of his five-year deal. But there was also probably no shot – at least in Brown's mind – that there would be no light at the end of the tunnel ... and absolutely no joy whatsoever in returning to New York to coach his hometown team. Another two months or so of the day-to-day grind of practicing, traveling and losing and Larry Brown will have had enough. He won't quit – that would mean walking way from the most lucrative coaching contract in league history. Most likely, it'll be a recurrence of undisclosed "health issues" that will be the stated reason for leaving. Plus, going the "bad-health" route leaves open the option of coming back next season in the unlikely event the Knicks are able to pull off a major deal – think LeBron James or Kevin Garnett – that makes the prospects of coaching them more palatable to Brown.

Bottom Line: Stephon Marbury will still be Knick at the end of this season ... but Larry Brown will no longer be the guy complaining about the team's deficiencies in the post-game press conferences.

All Cheaters Are NOT Alike ...

Twelve baseball players tested positive for banned substances during 2005. Here are their names:

Alex Sanchez, OF, Devil Rays Jorge Piedra, OF, Rockies Agustin Montero, P, Rangers Jamal Strong, OF, Mariners Juan Rincon, P, Twins Rafael Betancourt, P, Indians Rafael Palmeiro, 1B, Orioles Ryan Franklin, P, Mariners Michael Morse, SS, Mariners Carlos Almanzar, P, Rangers Felix Heredia, P, Mets Matt Lawton, OF, Yankees

Feel free to boo 11 of them next season. Why only 11 ... didn’t they all cheat? Yes, all 12 cheated. So why boo only 11 ... what makes one player different from all the others on the list?

One player was honest. One player admitted he made a mistake and was genuinely embarrassed by his actions. One player offered an apology that came from the heart.

That player is Matt Lawton. He cheated. He got caught. He will be suspended for the first 10 games of the 2006 season ... as he should. But Matt Lawton also explained exactly why he did what he did and then accepted full responsibility for his actions.

Lawton admitted taking boldenone (a veterinary steroid created to treat horses!) late last season to try to play through the pain of a shoulder injury that rendered him almost useless to the Yankees (he hit only .125 in 48 at-bats after coming to New York in a late-season trade). Here’s what he had to say:

"It was such a stupid thing, but I was desperate. Maybe it was the pressure of playing in New York, I don't know. I wasn't playing well enough to be on a Little League roster, let alone be on the roster of the New York Yankees. I just wasn't physically able to do the job. I had never been in the playoff hunt before. So I did something that will always haunt me.

I never had the urge to take any of that stuff before, but I was talking to some guys, and they guaranteed it would get the pain out. I don't want people to think that everything I did, the good years I had, were steroid-related. I learned a lot about myself last year, and I'll be better for it. Now I'm ready to prove it."

The Yankees had no interest in bringing Lawton back but the Mariners recently decided he was worth the risk -- signing him to a one-year contract for a base salary of $400,000, up to $1.25 million in incentives (based on plate appearances) and a no-trade clause. Lawton, on signing with Seattle:

“I look at coming to the Mariners as an opportunity to wipe the slate clean. I'm a grown man and I made a terrible mistake, but the embarrassment was having to tell my family. I had to tell my mom and wife. My daughter is 12 and my son is 5 and explaining to them was the most embarrassing part of it."

How refreshing and - unfortunately – how unique ... not just in sports, but also when compared to the multitude of cheaters and liars in politics and corporate America and every other walk of life.

Baseball’s still-flimsy drug testing policy required Matt Lawton be given a second chance. But it is his words and – more importantly – his character that make him different from the 11 other players that got caught cheating last season. And for that Matt Lawton deserves to be recognized and, yes, even applauded.

For Giants: Back Door IN = First Round OUT

The New York Giants had a chance to enter the playoffs for the first time in three years via the front door but stumbled against the Washington Redskins, falling 35-20 in a disturbingly flat, uninspired effort. One day later, the Giants were handed a gift when the Baltimore Ravens upset the Minnesota Vikings 30-23 -- securing a wildcard berth for the Giants.

Makes no difference how you make the playoffs as long as you make them, right? Wrong. At least in the case of an inconsistent team with an inexperienced quarterback. Had the New England Patriots backed their way into the playoffs - which they haven't - they would still be a feared opponent once the post-season began. Not so for the fledging Giants. The Redskins game was a test for the Giants. They failed the test.

The Giants face another test this coming Saturday and need to deliver a passing performance if they hope to make anything other than a cameo appearance in the playoffs. A road win against the Oakland Raiders will earn the Giants the division title. A loss and their only shot at the division title is - once again - via the back door. A Redskins loss on Sunday in Philadelphia - unlikely but far from impossible - would hand the Giants the division title.

Wild card teams can still win the Super Bowl, right? Right ... but forget about the Giants adding their name to that short list if they need to win all their post-season games on the road -- which is exactly what they'll need to do if they fail to win the division. The Giants are 3-4 record on the road season -- really 2-4 if you exclude a bogus "road" win over New Orleans at Giants Stadium at the beginning of the season. And those two wins came against a rotten San Francisco team and an injury-depleted Philadelphia team.

The good news for the Giants is that Oakland is bad news. In fact, they're a complete mess -- losers of five straight, scoring a total of three touchdowns in their last four games. At 4-11, Oakland has nothing on the line ... except the opportunity to play the spoiler. And what could be sweeter for Kerry Collins, the QB the Giants pushed aside to make room for Eli Manning? Collins has received too much blame for Oakland's wretched season, but - in what will likely be his final game for the Raiders - he'll try to prove the Giants made a mistake in letting him go. Collins won't be able to prove that because - in the long-run - the Giants were correct to hand the reigns to Manning. However, that doesn't mean that Collins can't be the best QB on the field this Saturday. And if he is, Giants fans better prepare for a one-and-done post-season -- regardless of what favors the Philadelphia Eagles might do for them on Sunday.

Tiki Barber: MVP

Tiki Barber is the NFL's Most Valuable player. That's not to say that he will win the award ... only that he deserves to win it. Logic suggests that the sheer volume of media coverage in New York would insure that the accomplishments of an athlete playing in New York would never be overlooked. Nevertheless, Barber - for some strange reason - continues to be underrated outside of New York. Two possible explanations for why Barber will not receive the MVP award:

1. The insistence of the NFL, the media and the fans to focus on rushing yardage as the key statistic when evaluating running backs rather than total yards from scrimmage (combined rushing AND receiving yardage). How overlooked is yards from scrimmage? You can't even find it on the National Football League's official web site. After 14 games, Shaun Alexander has rushed for 91 more yards than Barber ... but Barber has 421 receiving yards to only 72 for Alexander. In terms of total yards from scrimmage, Barber is an impressive 210 yards ahead of his nearest competitor (Edgerrin James). In fact, Barber is on pace for the seventh most yards from scrimmage in a single season EVER!

2. The other key statistic that can make or break a running back's season in the eyes of MVP voters is touchdowns scored. Again, the emphasis is wrongly placed on rushing touchdowns rather than TOTAL touchdowns. Shaun Alexander - with an amazing 24 rushing touchdowns - has a shot at the single-season record of 27 (Priest Holmes, 2003). Barber is at a big disadvantage in this category with only eight rushing touchdowns (plus another two receiving TDs). However, it's Giants coach Tom Coughlin - not Barber - that is to blame for Tiki's relatively low TD production. Alexander gets all the goal line carries for Seattle - as he should - and has responded by scoring 24 of his team's 26 total rushing touchdowns. In contrast, Barber has only eight of the Giants' 15 total rushing touchdowns because of Coughlin's irrational insistence on force-feeding rookie Brandon Jacobs the overwhelming majority of the short-yardage carries near the goal line. Such a strategy would have some merit if Barber's backfield teammate was someone like Jerome Bettis ... but to deny Barber the opportunity to register the TD in favor of a rookie who - so far - hasn't even demonstrated any aptitude for the role makes no sense whatsoever.

So, when the NFL MVP Award for 2005 is handed to Shaun Alexander (or Carson Palmer or Peyton Manning), Tiki Barber can thank the ignorance of the voters (for failing to recognize yards from scrimmage as the key stat for running backs) as well as his own coaching staff (for failing to do what's best for the team and give him the ball at the goal line) for costing him the award. Tiki's so classy and media-savvy that he'd never complain publicly but that doesn't change the fact that he'll have every right to feel slighted.

Isiah's Report Card: Part Two

[To See Part One of Isiah's Report Card, CLICK HERE]

Today marks the two-year anniversary of Isiah Thomas agreeing to come to New York to try and build a championship caliber team. At this point, we'll settle for respectable. In fact, let's start with not embarrassing.

In part one of Isiah's report card, he earned high marks for making the roster younger and more athletic. He received a D for failing to make the team any better in terms of wins and losses.

If he's succeeded in making the roster younger and more athletic by jettisoning every single player from the roster he inherited, why isn't that translating into more wins? That's the big question and - sorry Knicks fans - it's where Isiah gets a failing grade. There is no master plan. Isiah loves to make moves. If a player's available - regardless of whether or not that player can help the team - Isiah's interested. The Stephon Marbury deal was done to make a splash and the Eddy Curry deal was a calculated risk. Beyond those two, however, it is difficult to defend Isiah's pursuit of Jamal Crawford, Quentin Richardson, Maurice Taylor, Malik Rose, Jerome James, Vin Baker, Nazr Mohammed and Tim Thomas. Isiah wanted all these players because their previous teams were only to happy to let them go (what does that tell you?) ... not because they fit into an actual plan to make the New York Knicks better. And that's not even taking account the players Isiah has reportedly coveted (again because they were unwanted elsewhere), such as Antoine Walker, Ruben Patterson, Darius Miles, Eddie Griffin, Eddie Robinson and numerous others. Ironically, Ron Artest - a high-risk, high-maintenance player who could actually help the Knicks - couldn't be more available and Isiah has reportedly shown little to no interest in obtaining him. Go figure ...

So are the Knicks hopeless under Isiah? Not quite. The two things for which Thomas clearly deserves credit are solid draft picks and luring Larry Brown (albeit with the largest pile of cash ever thrown at an NBA coach) to take on a massive rebuilding project with little light at the end of the tunnel. Hard to argue with the selections of Trevor Ariza (#43) in 2004 and Channing Frye (#8), Nate Robinson (#21 from Phoenix) and David Lee (#30) in 2005.

Also hard to argue with hiring Larry Brown. After bungling his handling of Don Chaney, Lenny Wilkens and Herb Williams, Isiah made the biggest and best acquisition of his two-year reign when he convinced the Hall-of-Fame coach to weasel his way out of his contract in Detroit. While the results so far are disappointing - did someone say disastrous? - there's no question that having Brown at the helm - for however long he chooses to stick around - is a positive for the Knicks.

CONCLUSION: Isiah Thomas gets credit for overhauling the roster, making the team younger and more athletic, drafting well and hiring Larry Brown as coach. On the flip side, Thomas is to blame for the Lenny Wilkens experiment; trying to build around Stephon Marbury; making a bad salary cap situation worse (which didn't seem possible); and churning the roster with no master plan. Finally (and most importantly), after two years on the job, the New York Knicks are no closer to being a respectable NBA franchise - let alone a championship contender - than they were on the day Isiah Thomas took over.

OVERALL GRADE: D

Yanks Sign Damon: Time to Celebrate? Not So Fast.

Johnny Damon had a choice on how he wanted to spend the next four years: $40 million richer with long hair in Boston or $52 million richer with short hair patrolling centerfield for the New York Yankees. Damon may be a self-proclaimed "idiot" but he's not stupid -- he took the cash. With Scott Boras as his agent, you really thought loyalty would even be factored into the equation? Think again.

So how does this impact the greatest rivalry in sports? In the short-term, it clearly improves the Yankees and hurts the Red Sox. So Yankee fans should start celebrating, right? Not so fast. On the plus-side, Johnny Damon is a very good ballplayer and he's a clear upgrade in CF over any combination of Bernie Williams and Bubba Crosby. So what's the problem? The problem isn't Damon. It's that CF and the leadoff slot in the batting order are NOT the reason that the Yankees haven't won the World Series in any of the past five years.

Yankee fans are drooling over the thought of Johnny Damon at the top of the batting order. Yes, the batting order is impressive but scoring runs hasn't been the problem -- New York scored the second most runs in baseball last year WITHOUT Damon. And Damon's on-base-percentage last season (.366) would have only ranked him sixth among Yankee regulars. It's not like Derek Jeter (.389 OBP) wasn't getting the job done at the top of the order.

Bottom-line: Damon is a good signing. However, the Yankees were going to make it to their 12th consecutive post-season in 2006 with or without Damon. And once they get there, it's going to be the pitching - not the centerfielder - that determines whether or not they can win their first World Series since 2000. In other words, the most critical off-season signing for the New York Yankees isn't Johnny Damon ... it's Kyle Farnsworth and Octavio Dotel and Mike Myers and Ron Villone. Still feel like celebrating?

Isiah Thomas: Report Card After Two Years

Thursday, Dec. 22 marks the two-year anniversary of the appointment of Isiah Thomas as President of Basketball Operations for the New York Knicks. After two years, it's time for a job review. So how's Isiah doing?

To be fair, one must first take into account what Isiah Thomas inherited -- a team with a 10-18 record; an aging, athletically-challenged roster; and a salary cap nightmare. The tenure of Isiah's predecessor, Scott Layden, was an mitigated disaster. Knicks fans were ready for a change ... even if the choice of Isiah Thomas seemed curious given his track record of running the CBA into the ground and failing to improve either Toronto (as GM) or Indiana (as coach).

From day one, Isiah's stated goal was to get younger and more athletic. His unstated - but completely obvious - goal was to rid the team of every single player he inherited. Presumably, the accomplishment of these goals would translate into more wins. So how's it going? Let's take a look at the "before" and "after" rosters:

Dec. 22, 2003 Allan Houston Kurt Thomas Keith Van Horn Mike Sweetney Antonio McDyess Dikembe Mutombo Othella Harrington Clarence Weatherspoon Howard Eisley Shandon Anderson Charlie Ward Michael Doleac Frank Williams Maciej Lampe Slavko Vranes Milos Vujanic (rights)	Dec. 20, 2005 Stephon Marbury Eddy Curry Channing Frye Jamal Crawford Nate Robinson Trevor Ariza Quentin Richardson David Lee Antonio Davis Maurice Taylor Malik Rose Qyntel Woods Jackie Butler Jerome James Anfernee Hardaway

Younger? Check. More athletic? Check? All new players? Check. In fact, Isiah's incessant roster churning has also seen the following players both arrive AND depart during his relatively brief time on the job:

Vin Baker
Matt Barnes
Jamison Brewer
Jermaine Jackson
DerMarr Johnson
Nazr Mohammed
Moochie Norris
Bruno Sundov
Tim Thomas
Cezary Trybanski
Jerome Williams

OK, so where were we? Oh yeah ... has the younger, more athletic roster full of fresh faces translated into more W's and fewer L's? Unfortunately, that's where Isiah's report card gets a big fat D. In the 110 games leading up to Isiah's arrival, the Knicks were 47-63 for a .4273 winning percentage. In the 159 games since his arrival, the Knicks are 68-91 for a .4277 winning percentage. When you have to go out four decimal places to find improvement, something's wrong ... and plenty remains wrong with the present state of the New York Knicks.

To See Part Two of Isiah's Report Card, CLICK HERE

Who SHOULD Start in NBA All-Star Game? Who Cares?

The 2006 NBA All-Star Game will take place on Feb. 19 in Houston. The game is a completely meaningless exhibition. Agreed. Nevertheless, it's still fun to debate who the fans vote in as the starts versus who should be starting. The first returns of the 2006 balloting are in and here's who the fans are favoring so far:

Eastern Conference F - LeBron James (CLE) F - Jermaine O'Neal (IND) C - Shaquille O'Neal (MIA) G - Allen Iverson (PHI) G - Dwayne Wade (MIA)	Western Conference F - Tracy McGrady (HOU) F - Kevin Garnett (MIN) C - Yao Ming (HOU) G - Kobe Bryant (LAL) G - Steve Nash (PHO)

Here's who should be starting based on how they've performed over the first quarter of the 2005-06 season:

Eastern Conference F - LeBron James (CLE) F - Paul Pierce (BOS) C - Jermaine O'Neal (IND) G - Allen Iverson (PHI) G - Dwayne Wade (MIA)	Western Conference F - Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) F - Elton Brand (LAC) C - Marcus Camby (DEN) G - Kobe Bryant (LAL) G - Steve Nash (PHO)

In the East, Pierce gets the nod over Jermaine O'Neal. O'Neal - who is really a C/F - gets slid to center in place of Shaq, who's only played seven games. In the West, Nowitzki and Brand get the slightest of edges at forward, leaving Garnett and McGrady (and Duncan!) to come off the bench. Camby is an easy choice at center over Yao Ming.

Interesting to note: The Pistons and the Spurs are the two best teams in the NBA. Yet neither team has a single player listed - on either version - of the above all-star teams. Nevertheless, wouldn't you give the Pistons a decent shot at beating the Eastern Conference stars? Likewise, wouldn't the Spurs give the Western Conference stars all they could handle? Absolutely ... because basketball is a team game -- always has been ... always will be. Just ask any of the "teams" that now routinely beat the hand-picked rosters of U.S. "all-stars" in international competition ...

Losing is NOT Good for the Colts

The Indianapolis Colts have lost to the San Diego Chargers 26-17 -- ending their quest for an unprecedented 16-0 season. The automatic response from many cliche-lovers will be that "this is what's best for the Colts" ... because "now they can focus on winning the Super Bowl" ... and "in the big picture it's more important to win the Super Bowl than to go undefeated in the regular season". Nonsense. Every year somebody wins the Super Bowl ... and a few years later hardly anybody really cares or remembers anymore. No team has EVER gone 16-0. Plus, it's not like it was an either-or proposition. The Colts could have gone 16-0 AND won the Super Bowl ... in which case they'd have to be considered one of the greatest teams of ALL-TIME. With the undefeated season no longer an option, the Super Bowl now remains as the only thing left to shoot for and - judging by their loss to San Diego and their performance in post-seasons past - it's by no means a sure thing that Indianapolis will even be in the Super Bowl, much less win the thing. So appreciate what the Colts have accomplished so far this season, but don't pretend that there's a silver lining in losing a bid at immortality ... because there isn't.